Poilievre Packs... the Lower Bowl
Pierre Poilievre came to Medicine Hat on Thursday night, and the room was not full.
The federal Conservative leader appeared at "An Evening with Pierre Poilievre: Building a Strong, More Competitive Canada for Business," co-hosted by the Southeast Alberta Chamber of Commerce and local MP Glen Motz at the Eresman Theatre at Medicine Hat College. The venue holds 506 people.
Owl News Photo
The Owl attended the event. Based on observation and the theatre's seating chart, roughly 250 people were in the room - about 50 in the upper section. The lower bowl holds 201. Organizers moved attendees from the upper section down to the lower bowl. They said they did not want empty seats in the lower portion.
That is roughly 0.4% of the ballots cast in this riding in the last federal election, raises questions about whether enthusiasm for Poilievre is cooling even in one of the safest Conservative seats in the country.
Poilievre and Motz received a standing ovation when they entered the theatre.
In 2022, Poilievre drew a sell-out crowd of approximately 600 people to a fundraising dinner at the Cypress Centre in Medicine Hat. That was a ticketed, partisan event.
Last night's event was free admission, billed as open to business leaders and community members.
A Brief Aside on Access
The event was simultaneously being livestreamed on Poilievre's own social media channels, and the Chamber's promotional material described it as open to "business leaders, community leaders, elected officials, and engaged citizens." Registration was not mandatory for attendance, it was only recommended to guarantee a seat.
At the door, I was asked if I had registered. I asked whether media had to register. No one mentioned an undertaking or any restriction on photography, and I was admitted.
I was taking photographs when a Chamber representative told me the public was not allowed to take photos. I explained I was media and that is when the undertaking was mentioned. I left shortly after.
When our organization hosted a mayoral forum in the same theatre, we imposed no such requirements. Media were welcome. Members of the public were welcome. No undertakings were required.
There was no visible security at the door - no bag checks, no obvious bodyguards. The undertaking did not appear to be about safety.
The Charter of Rights and Freedoms guarantees freedom of the press under section 2(b), and Canadian courts have recognized that this includes newsgathering activities such as photography at public events.
This was when Motz and Poilievre entered the room. This is the second of the two photos I managed to take before the Chamber stopped me. - Owl News
The Broader Context
The smaller-than-expected crowd comes amid broader signs that Poilievre's appeal is cooling - even among Conservative partisans.
National polling from the Angus Reid Institute in September found that 61% of Canadians view Poilievre unfavourably, with only 32% holding a favourable view. Among past Conservative voters, 57% want him to lead the party into the next election, down from 68% last August. The number who think he should be replaced has nearly doubled, from 18% to 30%.
More troubling for the party faithful: two-thirds of Conservative voters say they are satisfied with Poilievre's performance, but that means one in three is not. Prime Minister Mark Carney has a much higher approval rating than Pierrre Poilievre.
Caucus morale, according to multiple reports, is low. One Conservative MP told CBC News that Canadians "don't want to hear from us right now." Another described the party's position bluntly: "This is not the position that we want to be in at this juncture."
What This Means Locally
Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner remains a deeply Conservative riding. Glen Motz won 76.7% of the vote in 2025. In the 2022 Conservative leadership race, riding members gave Poilievre 83% support.
But there is a difference between the base that turns out to vote and the enthusiasm that fills a room. A free event with the party leader and the local MP, in a conservative heartland, drawing roughly 250 people - and requiring organizers to move attendees down to fill the lower bowl - is a data point. It is not a decisive one. It does not mean Motz is in trouble. It does not mean the riding will flip.
But it does suggest that the intense energy that characterized Poilievre's earlier appearances in this region may have dissipated. The standing ovation shows the base is still there. The empty seats - and the effort to fill them - show it may be smaller than it once was.
Whether that translates into anything at the ballot box is another question entirely. Conservative voters in this riding have shown remarkable loyalty. But loyalty and enthusiasm are not the same thing.
