Op-Ed - Dani’s Dare Won’t be Fair But Still Set To Fail

Independence advocates in Medicine Hat earlier this year during a petition drive on Dunmore Road. (File Photo).

Much is being made about the separatist contingent within the UCP membership which account for about half the membership, but it’s the views of the other 50 per cent which will be the key contingent that ousts Premier Danielle Smith. 

The focus has been on these separatists being required to be appeased for Smith to retain her party leadership and, through that, her premiership of Alberta.

There are those within the UCP’s separtist ranks who have articulated quite loudly that Smith has become poisonous over the wording she decided to use on the sovereignty referendum that will be held in October. Others in the separatist camp still think she’s the movement’s best chance at succeeding in the long term as they can’t even field candidates to beat NDP hopefuls in staunchly conservative ridings in an election.

But it’s the other half of the party who don’t count themselves amongst those who support independence or this referendum which may form the core of the quiet majority to remove Smith.

While it’s been four years since Jason Kenney secured slightly more than a majority in his leadership review,  he did get half the votes of the rank and file UCP members to remain Alberta’s premier.

Pro-sovereignty flags fly in front of a home in Medicine Hat. (File Photo)

While that majority was too thin to save his premiership, those members are still around, still support Kenney and even share his feelings about the fact hardcore separatists only representing a small fraction of Albertans and whose voice have been over-represented.

Kenney is now backing former Medicine Hat MP turned lobbyist Monte Solberg and his clan’s Vote To Stay campaign.

That campaign is a safe space for Alberta conservatives who want nothing to do with supporting independence, don’t want to besmirch Smith directly but who also don’t want to align themselves too closely with the Alberta NDP or federal Liberal’s despite all of them trying to accomplish the exact same goal.

The Solberg clan may not have a sign hanging up outside their clubhouse stating, “No Danielle Smith’s Allowed,” but it’s hard to see the premier wanting to join this early in the game anyway.

The irony being the Vote To Stay folks, Alberta NDP, federal Liberals and Conservatives along with the premier and UCP will all be advocating against Alberta independence.

In the oddest of ways, Smith has actually unified the province and country.

UCP MLAs will be campaigning at the same time as their NDP counterparts for the same thing, conservative and progressive Alberta constituents will rally, a Liberal prime minister and Conservative Opposition Leader will be visiting the province pitching essentially the same message.

And, at some point around Canada Day when MLAs like Justin Wright are wearing a Canadian flag pin, giving away Canadian flags and campaigning for Alberta to remain in the country and every other MLA and MP from all parties are doing the same, constituents are going to be asking themselves, “why are we doing this?”

Pro-Canada Medicine Hat activist Shelley Eaket-Ewing speaking with Ezra Levant during a Rebel Media event at the college earlier this year. (File Photo)

Sometime a little after the Calgary Stampede when the well-heeled crowd get over their hangovers from the private corporate event tents, Albertans might come to the conclusion this independence referendum was completely unnecessary and it’s negatively impacting investment in the province to appease a few.

By the time the political barbecue circuit winds down during the dog days of August, it will be apparent Albertans wishing to remain in Canada will form a super majority and sovereigntists never had a chance.

But there will be ramifications for Smith by those in caucus who support remaining in Canada and even more so by those who were required to be whipped to campaign for the pro-Canada side.

Smith’s caucus and cabinet will be hearing earfuls from both the federalists and sovereigntists for the next few months.

To what end was that even necessary, some UCP MLAs, constituency boards and members may be left asking themselves.

And a few will be thinking they could have handled this situation better.

When perennial leadership candidate Energy Minister Brian Jean was asked by a Western Standard reporter whether Albertans should have a right to vote on independence, he not only didn’t provide an answer but was indignant at even being asked.

This was on the day after the referendum question was launched.

One can only imagine what he and other in the UCP caucus will be like on day 140 of the campaign having such questions put to them multiple times a day, every day.

And in the ironies of ironies, it likely won’t be the separatists who inevitably push Smith out as they will likely make up her dwindling base of support at the very end.

The UCP doesn’t need Smith to win the next provincial election, they can end her appeasement of a fringe element which has served little purpose other than getting her elected and pick from a deep bench.

But winning the next election is likely going to be tougher than it needs to be with Smith who’s carrying the baggage of no shortage of health care spending scandals, gerrymandering election boundaries and putting Albertans through a completely unesscessary referendum.